Course Title: Advanced Placement Statistics

 

Meeting Times: This course runs for 36 weeks and meets every second day. Each period consists of 80 minutes of instructional time.

 

Course Description:

AP Statistics provides a systematic development of the concepts, principles, and tools of statistics with an emphasis on inquiry and critical-thinking skills associated with the collection, representation, analysis, and drawing conclusions from authentic data. Topics of study include data investigation, designing and conducting studies, anticipating patterns using probability and simulations, and statistical inference. Technology is a central component of the course and includes the use of graphing calculators, computers, and data analysis software. On a regular basis, graphing calculators and computers are used to explore, discover, and reinforce concepts of statistics and probability.

Though our system has an open enrollment policy, students should understand that this course is designed to be a fourth-year mathematics course, and the equivalent of an introductory, one-semester, non-calculus-based, college-level statistics course. The course requires a working knowledge of Algebra II, and quantitative reasoning. The breadth, pace, and depth of material covered exceeds the standard high school mathematics course, as does the college-level textbook, and time and effort required of students. This course provides the statistics foundation for college majors in social sciences, health sciences, and business, and serves as the preparation for an upper-level, calculus-based statistics course for majors in the sciences, engineering, and mathematics.  Students are expected to take the AP Statistics Exam at the end of this course.

 

Course Purpose and Goals:

Philosophy

Understanding statistics as the science of data is the basis of this course. Statistics is the formal study of data as numbers in a context. Students build an understanding of statistical concepts as they construct relationships and make connections among the various representations of data and how data is interpreted. The course is more than a collection of topics; it is a coherent, focused curriculum that develops a broad range of statistical and probabilistic thinking, and a variety of statistical methods and applications. Although the development of techniques and fluency with graphic and numeric representations to represent problems is important, it is not the only focus of the course. Rather, the course emphasizes a conceptual development of statistical thinking through the use of an exploratory analysis of real data often using technology, planning and implementing well-designed studies, and engaging students in active learning. According to the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (2000), "The amount of data available to help make decisions in business, politics, research, and everyday life is staggering… Statistics are often misused to sway public opinion on issues or to misrepresent the quality and effectiveness of commercial products. Students need to know about data analysis and related aspects of probability in order to reason statistically—skills necessary to becoming informed citizens and intelligent consumers" (p. 48).

To support students’ development of statistical thinking, technology is used to enhance their understanding of major concepts and tools for working with data. The College Board requires the use of graphing calculators for this course. Mathematical problem solving, investigations, and projects require adequate and timely access to technology including graphing calculators, databases, spreadsheets, Internet and on-line resources, and data analysis software packages. In this course, technology is introduced in the context of real-world problems, incorporates multiple graphical representations, uses a simulation approach for studying probability, and facilitates connections to other disciplines. Students actively participate in the process of statistical investigations by using estimation, mental math, calculators, computers, and paper-and-pencil techniques.

The standards support the unifying themes of exploring data, sampling and experimentation, anticipating patterns, and statistical inference. Instruction is designed and sequenced to provide students with learning opportunities in appropriate settings.  Teaching strategies include collaborative small-group work, pairs engaged in data analysis, whole-group presentations, peer-to-peer discussions, and an integration of technology when appropriate. In this course, students are often actively engaged in statistical investigations that enable them to collaborate with peers in fitting mathematical models to the data and interpret how well the model fits the data. It is a cyclic process in which the data suggest refinements in original questions and mathematical models used. Based on the data, relationships among variables are evaluated through appropriate methods of analysis. Students are encouraged to discuss the mathematics of statistical analysis and inferences, to use the language and tools of statistics to communicate, and to discuss problems and methods of solution.

 

Goals

Students should be able to:

1.      Develop statistical thinking based on a conceptual understanding of major topics and tools of data collection, representation, analysis, inference, and conclusions.

2.      Analyze and interpret data from graphical displays and numerical distribution summaries, and justify conclusions.

3.      Employ the language and symbols of statistics, and effectively communicate the formulation of questions, data collection methods and displays, interpretation of statistical analysis, and evaluation of inferences and predictions based on the data.

4.      Use probability as a tool to predict how the distribution of data is related to an appropriate mathematical model. 

5.      Develop an understanding of statistical inference through the use of confidence intervals and tests of significance.

6.      Use graphing calculators and computers in the exploration, statistical analysis, simulation, and modeling of data.

7.      Make sense of and evaluate the reasonableness of conclusions based on data.

8.      Develop an appreciation for an historical perspective of statistics.

 

Conceptual Organization

The content and level of depth of the material for this course is equivalent to a college-level course. The course content is organized to emphasize major topics in the course to include the following: (1) exploring data, (2) sampling and experimentation, (3) anticipating patterns, and (4) statistical inference. Building on most students’ prior knowledge, the course begins with a review of graphical and numerical data displays. Technology enhances students’ constructing an understanding of mathematical relationships among these different representations used in solving problems. This supports and leads to students’ visualization and discussion of distribution summaries including measures of center, spread, and position. Information from distributions of univariate data are compared and interpreted in the context of real-world problems. Normal distributions are examined prior to moving to the study of bivariate data.

Students are provided with opportunities to generate and collect bivariate data, and they analyze relationships between variables using scatter plots, linear correlations, and least squares regression lines. Outliers, influential points, residual plots, and transformations to achieve linearity are examined. This is followed with a focus on the concept of cause and effect, confounding variables, and relationships found in categorical data. In quarter 2, students investigate the purpose and process of a statistical investigation. The concept of randomness is studied and a variety of data collection methods that are used to support the design of a well-planned study. This naturally leads to an examination of sampling error and sources of bias. Probability is introduced as a method for exploring random phenomena, used to analyze simulations, and viewed as predictable patterns in sampling distributions. Specifically, students begin to work with binomial and geometric distributions and probabilities near the end of the first semester.  

During the second semester of the course, students broaden their understanding of statistical concepts and techniques to include more sampling distributions, the Central Limit Theorem, and statistical inference. Confidence intervals and tests of significance are emphasized through a wide-range of appropriate models dependent upon the conditions of particular real-world problems. This order of topics within the course, not only provides a logical and systemic study to calculus, but also accommodates the frequent transfer of students within the schools of the system, so that transfer students can maintain a consistent flow of learning.

 


Course Format and Policies:

A typical class format consists of

 

Grading policy consists of tests for every chapter (60%), assignments or short projects (15%) and homework completed (25%). At the end of Semester 1, there will be a final exam. At the end of Semester 2, there will be a final exam and also the students will have to present research done over the last month of classes.

 

Homework  policy: The purpose is to practice the skills learned from day to day. Students can expect to have homework daily. It is the student’s responsibility to stay caught up and review their work regularly. Homework assignments for the entire year are passed out the first week of class. If an unplanned absence occurs, the students should get the notes from another student and work on the assignments. The instructor will review the homework given out on a daily basis.

 

Weighted grades are calculated for students completing and taking the requisite exam of an AP course.

 

Unweighted Scale A=4                         Weighted Scale A=5

Unweighted Scale B=3                         Weighted Scale B=4

Unweighted Scale C=2                         Weighted Scale C=3

Unweighted Scale D=1                         Weighted Scale D=2

Unweighted Scale F=0                         Weighted Scale F=1

 

 

Textbook, Materials and Other Resources: 

Required Textbook

Supplemental Textbooks and Readings

 

Other Resources

 

Course Content Outline:        

 

Each major theme has the following percentage of:

 

Semester 1:

 

Semester 2

 

 

Unit

Quarter

Week

Topics

Learning tools

Assessments

I. Organizing Data

Make

·   use of graphical and numerical techniques to study data;

·   interpretation from graphical and numerical displays and summaries.

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 1

Exploring Data

 

1.1 Displaying Distributions with Graphs

1.2 Describing Distributions with Numbers

1

1-3

· Dotplots, stemplots, and histograms

· New coverage of ogives and linear transformations

· Mean, median, spread, outliers

· Five number summary

· Boxplots

· Variance, standard deviation

· Linear transformation

 

Many new examples and exercises using contemporary, real data

 

Homework

 

Use of the calculator to find the five number summary, variance and standard deviation

 

Use of the graphing calculator to draw boxplots.

 

 

Test 1

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

Chapter  2

Normal Distributions

 

2.1 Density Curves and the Normal Distribution

2.2 Standard Normal Calculations

1

4-5

· Density curves and standard deviation

· 68 – 95 - 99.7 rule

· Standard normal distribution (Z)

· Z – table

· Normal probability plot

Project: Normal distribution with a dart board; demonstrate and calculate normal distribution with every day life activities

 

Examples done in class

 

Use of the calculator to find the normal distribution

Project with the dart board

 

Test 2

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

Chapter  3

Examining Relationships

 

3.1 Scatterplots

3.2 Correlation

3.3 Least-Squares Regression

1

6-7

· Scatterplot: explanatory and response variable, linear relationship, strength

· Correlation r

· Least square regression line

· Residuals

· Influential observations

Project: Relation between body part of different people; finding the correlation between people

 

Use of the calculator to draw scatterplots, calculate the correlation, least square regression line

 

Useof  the computer to analyze data

Project with the body parts.

 

Test 3

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

Chapter  4

More on Two-Variable Data

 

4.1 Transforming Relationships

4.2 Cautions about Correlation and Regression

4.3 Relations in Categorical Data

1

8-9

· Transformation of scale using logarithm

· Exponent growth and power law model

· Causation, common response, confounding

· Two-way table

· Simpson’s paradox

Project: Cancer spreading; finding the mathematical model of a cancer simulation

 

Use of the calculator to draw line graph, change to logarithm scale

 

Use of the computer to perform scale transformation with different relations

Project about the cancer

 

Test 4

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

II. Producing Data

Method of data collection and analysis.

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter  5

Producing data

 

5.1 Designing Samples

5.2 Designing Experiments

5.3 Simulating Experiments

2

10-11

· Methods of data collection: census, sample survey, experiment, observational study

· Sampling methods

· Treatments, experimental units

· Simulation

Project: Farmer’s field: different sampling methods to analyzed which one works best

 

Use of the calculator to create simulations

Project about sampling

 

Test 5

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

III. Probability

Anticipating what the distribution of data should look like.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter  6

Probability: The study if randomness

 

6.1 The Idea of Probability

6.2 Probability Models

6.3 General Probability Rules

2

12-13

· Sample space

· Probability model

· Complements

· Disjoint, independent and dependant events

 

Hands-on activities with probability games

Test 6

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

Chapter  7

Random Variables

 

7.1 Discrete and Continuous Random Variables

7.2 Means and Variances of Random Variables

2

14-15

· Probability distribution

· Discrete random variable

· Continuous random variable

· Density curve (normal distribution)

· Mean and variance

· Transformation combining two variables

Use of the calculator to perform calculation from the probability distribution

 

Use of the computer to simulate probability distribution

Test 7

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

Chapter  8

The Binomial and Geometric Distributions

 

8.1 The Binomial Distributions

8.2 The Geometric Distributions

2

16-17

· Binomial coefficient

· Factorial

· Binomial probability

· Geometric probability

Project: Binomial and geometric distribution using dice. Calculate and experiment using dice.

Project with the dice

 

Test 8

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

 

2

18

Review for Semester Exam

 

Semester 1 Assessment

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

Chapter  9

Sampling Distributions

 

9.1 Sampling Distributions

9.2 Sample Proportions

9.3 Sample Means

3

19-20

· Population proportion

· Mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of p

· Central limit theorem

Class simulation with normal distribution

Test 9

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

IV. Inference

Statistical inference guides the selection of appropriate models.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter  10

Introduction to Inference

10.1 Estimating with Confidence

10.2 Tests of Significance

10.3 Making Sense of Statistical Significance

10.4 Inference as Decision

3

21-23

· Confidence interval

· Confidence interval for the mean m

· Margin of error

· Ho  one and two sided alternative

· P - values

· Introduction of Inference Toolbox

· Expanded treatment of Type I, Type II errors and Power

Use of the calculator to perform calculation

 

Test 10

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

Chapter  11

Inference for Distributions

 

11.1 Inference for the Mean of a Population

11.2 Comparing Two Means

 

4

24-25

· Tests and confidence intervals for the mean m of a normal population

· t table

· Confidence interval

· Significance test

· Increased emphasis on distinguishing matched-pairs from two-sample procedures

 

Use of the calculator to perform calculation

 

Use of the t table to calculate the confidence interval

Test 11

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

Chapter  12

Inference for Proportions

 

12.1 Inference for a Population Proportion

12.2 Comparing Two Proportions

4

26-27

· z procedure

· Confidence interval

· Choosing the sampling size

· Derivation of the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of p1 and p2

 

Use of the calculator to perform calculation

 

Use of the F distribution critical values table

Homework

 

Test 12

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

Chapter  13

Inference for Tables: Using Chi-square

 

13.1 Test for Goodness of Fit

13.2 Inference for Two-Way Tables

4

27-28

· Chi-square distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom

· Chi-square statistics

· Performing Chi-square test

Use of the calculator to perform calculation

 

Use of the Chi-square distribution table

Test 13

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response

Chapter  14

Inference for Regression

 

14.1 Inference about the Model

4

29-31

· Regression model

· True regression line

· Standard error about the line s

 

Quiz 14.1

 

 

4

32

· Review for Semester Exam

 

Semester 2 Assessment

Multiple Choice, Problems, Constructed Response